Is The World Growing More Dangerous?

We hear claims about the state of the world all of the time. We hear statements about ever increasing violence, and those claims are usually backed up with whatever recent tragedy or terrorist act is being reported on in the media. But are those claims true? Is the world more or less violent than in other times in our history? Are events such as 9/11, 7/7, and the more recent case of Anders Behring Breivik who murdered 77 people in Norway, "proof" that world is more dangerous than ever?

The events in Norway and even the 9/11 terrorists attacks are anecdotal evidence. Anecdotes are not real evidence and should never be used to make a case about the state of the world. If we apply a bit of critical thinking to such claims we can see where they fall short. Citing single, isolated, events - events that are so shocking because they are so rare - prevents us from seeing the actual historical trends. And those historical trends are telling us something completely different.

Steven Pinker, the famed Harvard scientist, recently released an excellent book entitled The Better Angels of Our Nature: Why Violence Has Declined (Viking, 2011), in which he has laid out a mass of evidence that shows violence has been decreasing for centuries. Pinker, who is renowned for making amazing insights into human nature, gives us a wealth of information by mixing psychology and history. Far from bombarding us with anecdotes the book is full of data, which can fly in the face of what we hear on the nightly news or from the talking-heads that analyze the news for us.

Examining the 20th century with its two world wars and the genocides and all of the other conflicts, Mr. Pinker shows us that about 0.7% of all people that lived during that century died from war. In the year 2005 less than 0.8% of all Americans died from domestic violence and the Iraq and Afghanistan wars combined. Compare the murder rates in Middle-Ages era London with now, 110 per 100,000 people in the 14th century to the less than 1 per 100,000 of today. 14th century Londoners were more than 100 times more likely to die from murder than they are today!

It is always important to examine blanket claims about the state of the world with a healthy sense of skepticism. If a claim is backed up with anecdotes then you can usually be confident that it rests on bad logic. There are experts that study the world around us for a living and with zeal and passion. Many of them are scientists with years of academic training, and their claims must withstand scrutiny from their peers - peers who are often the harshest critics. Those experts are qualified to tell us about the world and give us the evidence to review on our own. We should also remember that our attitudes can be influenced by the media. Certainly the news outlets can be looked at as a contributing factor if we feel the world is going down hill but yet the facts say differently.

Robert K Ethridge is a guest blogger for several websites. He enjoys writing about skeptical and critical thinking, science and pseudoscience, and many other diverse topics. This month Rob begins a new blog series at SentientCouchPotato.com

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