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US climate negotiator Jonathan Pershing speaks at a press conference at the UN summit in Cancún, Mexico. Photograph: Ronaldo Schemidt/AFP/Getty Images America has adopted a tough all-or-nothing position at the Cancún climate change summit, fuelling speculation of a walk-out if developing countries do not meet its demands.
At the opening of the talks at Cancún, the US climate negotiator, Jonathan Pershing, made clear America wanted a "balanced package" from the summit.
That's diplomatic speak for a deal that would couple the core issues for the developing world – agreement on climate finance, technology, deforestation – with US demands for emissions actions from emerging economies and a verifiable system of accounting for those cuts.
In a briefing with foreign journalists in Washington, the chief climate envoy, Todd Stern, was blunt. "We're either going to see progress across the range of issues or we're not going to see much progress," said Stern. "We're not going to race forward on three issues and take a first step on other important ones. We're going to have to get them all moving at a similar pace."
In the run-up to the Cancún talks, Stern has said repeatedly that America will not budge from its insistence that fast-emerging economies such as India and China commit to reducing emissions and to an inspection process that will verify those actions.
The hard line – which some in Washington have seen as ritual diplomatic posturing – has fuelled speculation that the Obama administration could be prepared to walk out of the Cancún talks.
It is already under pressure for its green agenda from a new conservative Republican power bloc in Congress determined to block the powers of the Environmental Protection Agency to act on greenhouse gases and other sources of pollution, and defund programmes dealing with climate change. There is next to no chance Congress would take up cap-and-trade legislation or ratify any UN treaty.
The administration's weak domestic position, in turn, has cast doubts on its ability to deliver even the very modest 17% cut on 2005 emissions Obama agreed at the Copenhagen summit last year.
But a walk-out would wreck any lingering hopes that small progress in Cancún might put the UN negotiations process back on track after the debacle of Copenhagen.
However, Stern was insistent America will not move forward on climate finance without movement on its core issues. "We have heard a lot of talk this year about capturing the so-called low-hanging fruit by which countries who use that phrase often mean all the provisions dealing with financial and technology assistance, leaving the so-called hard issues of mitigation and transparency for sometime later," he told last week's foreign press briefing. "We are not doing that."
In a blog post, Michael Levi, an energy and environment fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, warned that the dynamics of Cancún could push America into a walk-out.
"There are decent odds that the United States will be presented with a final package that takes action on all sorts of things that developing countries want but doesn't have any clear wins for Washington," he wrote. "But I wouldn't be surprised to see the US reject such an outcome, even if it means walking away with nothing and being attacked for that."
The US has already drastically scaled down its presence at Cancún, compared with its participation at the Copenhagen climate change summit.
The Obama administration invested mightily in Copenhagen, seeing the summit as a chance to spotlight the changes in Washington after the exit of George Bush, who had pulled America out of the Kyoto protocols and blocked environmental measures at home.
Like other world leaders, Barack Obama made a personal appearance. But the administration also sent Hillary Clinton, the secretary of state, and eight other cabinet secretary and White House officials. America also sent outsize delegations of Democratic leaders in Congress.
But as Levi noted, the dynamics of this year's meeting are decidedly different. Developing countries, and some in Europe, see Cancún as a last chance to reach agreement on the building blocks of an eventual treaty – with or without the US.
However, the Obama administration – more than ever with hostile Republicans in Congress – cannot walk away empty-handed, Levi wrote.
"Rule number one for US climate negotiators has always been to make sure that what happens in the UN talks doesn't hurt prospects for domestic action. Headlines that say 'US gives money, technology to developing world; gets nothing in return' won't exactly fit that bill," he wrote.
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