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And now, the only poll that counts.
After months of being on the receiving end of countless television commercials, mailers and automated phone calls, voters in the New York region finally get their chance on Tuesday to tell a host of candidates for federal and state offices what they really think.
Most of the attention, locally, will focus on New York and Connecticut. Up for grabs are openings for the governor’s mansions in Albany and Hartford, as well as for two United States Senate seats in New York, and one in Connecticut. Every single seat in the House of Representatives is also being contested, in what political analysts say could be an early indicator of just how well Republicans will fare across the country.
Political analysts caution that anything can happen, especially in a turbulent year dominated by anger and anxiety swirling around the economy. But here is what the electoral picture looks like as voters make their choices.
NEW YORK
Attorney General Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat, is facing Carl P. Paladino, a Buffalo real estate developer who is a Republican, with most polls showing Mr. Cuomo as a clear favorite. Mr. Cuomo has run a cautious, centrist campaign, and has benefited by avoiding the kinds of high-profile gaffes and provocative statements that Mr. Paladino, who touts himself as a straight talker, has made.
But two other Democrats aiming for Albany — State Senator Eric T. Schneiderman, who is running for attorney general, and Thomas P. DiNapoli, who is hoping to parlay his appointment as state comptroller into an electoral victory — are facing much tougher races, according to recent polls. Their Republican opponents, respectively, are Daniel M. Donovan Jr., the Staten Island district attorney, and Harry J. Wilson, a former financier.
New Yorkers will also be voting for United States senator, but the state’s two Democratic lawmakers are expected to prevail over their Republican rivals. Senator Charles E. Schumer, who could become the next majority leader, is facing Jay Townsend, and Senator Kirsten E. Gillibrand, who is running statewide for the first time, is facing former Representative Joseph J. DioGuardi.
Democrats are girding for difficult battles in several Congressional districts, thanks in no small part to donations of more than $1 million from outside nonprofit groups. The most hotly contested fights involve Representative Scott Murphy against Chris Gibson in the Saratoga Springs region; Representative John Hall against Nan Hayworth in the suburbs north of New York City; Representative Michael Arcuri against Richard Hanna in central New York; and Representative Bill Owens against Matt Doheny in the northernmost part of the state.
Also worth watching is whether the State Senate, now controlled by Democrats, reverts to Republican control. And in New York City, one issue that played a major subtext in last year’s mayoral contest — term limits — will be up for a formal vote, even though it will literally be on the back of the ballot.
CONNECTICUT
In the United States Senate race between Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat, and Linda E. McMahon, the Republican and a former pro wrestling executive, Mr. Blumenthal has never trailed in the polls, despite getting pummeled by more than $40 million worth of spending from Ms. McMahon.
The race to succeed the departing Gov. M. Jodi Rell between Dannel P. Malloy, a former mayor of Stamford who is a Democrat, and Thomas C. Foley, a wealthy businessman who is a Republican, has tightened in recent days. As a result, Mr. Malloy needs to do well in Democratic strongholds like Bridgeport and New Haven, or else he will join the long list of Democratic gubernatorial candidates who have lost since 1986.
Two young Democratic congressmen, viewed as rising stars after defeating two veteran moderate Republicans, are on the ropes against more conservative opponents this time. In the northwest, Representative Christopher S. Murphy, who ousted Nancy L. Johnson in 2006, is facing Sam S.F. Caligiuri, a state senator. And in the affluent southwest, Representative Jim Himes, who unseated Christopher Shays in 2008, is battling State Senator Dan Debicella.
NEW JERSEY
The most competitive Congressional race is in South Jersey, outside Philadelphia, where Representative John H. Adler, a freshman Democrat, is trying to fend off Jon Runyan, a political novice who is a former star of the Philadelphia Eagles football team. And though Mr. Runyan has stumbled (when asked during a recent debate to pick one recent Supreme Court decision with which he disagreed, he cited the Dred Scott decision from 1857), Mr. Adler has been hurt by reports that his campaign encouraged a faux Tea Party candidate to siphon votes away from Mr. Runyan.
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