First Thoughts: Three questions for Palin - msnbc.com

Three questions to determine if Palin is serious about being a successful presidential candidate: 1) Does she broaden her appeal… 2) Does she become more disciplined?... 3) Does she expand her policy portfolio?... New Q-poll shows Palin performing the worst among other GOPers in a head-to-head against Obama… The president's trip to Portugal was more successful than his trip to Asia… START has become the next big Washington battle… Expect to see more White House staff movement sooner rather than later… And an update on the uncalled House races.

From NBC's Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg
*** Three questions for Palin: As Sarah Palin comes out with a new book this week, as she goes on a book tour (hitting some battleground states), and as she hints that she might run for president in a New York Times magazine profile, the political world finds itself in the midst of another round of Palin-palooza. Will she run for president? If not, what is she up to? While we're still not sure she actually runs (if she found the scrutiny of remaining Alaska governor too much, then she might not enjoy running for president or even being president), we’ve come up with three questions to determine if she’s truly serious about being a successful presidential candidate. After all, almost anyone can run for president (see: Mike Gravel, Alan Keyes, Fred Thompson, even Rudy Giuliani). But being a successful candidate -- coping with the campaign’s highs and lows, outlasting your opponents, and still appealing to a sizable portion of the country -- is another matter.

*** Does she broaden her appeal? First, does she broaden her appeal beyond her conservative/Tea Party base? Most successful presidential candidates --- at least at this point in the cycle -- are viewed more as uniters than dividers. Yet per a NBC/WSJ poll conducted earlier this fall, Palin is loved by conservatives (53%-19% fav/unfav) and Republicans (55%-17%), but not by Democrats (9%-73%), moderates (14%-62%), or independents (25%-55%). And in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll, which was released after the midterms, being endorsed by Palin was one of the more negative candidate qualities; in fact, it was worse than being endorsed by a labor union, than supporting allowing workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market, and than supporting the economic stimulus.

*** Does she become more disciplined? Second, does she begin to be more disciplined? Since resigning her governorship last year, Palin has not only picked fights with the Obama White House and congressional Democrats -- but also with David Letterman, Katie Couric, Politico, the Wall Street Journal, and even some establishment Beltway Republicans. While that kind of combat can work for a political pundit or entertainer (like Rush Limbaugh), it’s harder for an actual presidential candidate, who will be a target of slings and arrows from Democrats and the White House, from fellow GOP presidential candidates, and from the news media. “She gives as good as she gets,” Mary Matalin told Robert Draper in his New York Times magazine piece on Palin. “But I don’t know her well enough to know if she’s developed the thick skin you need to be endlessly resilient, the way Reagan could take things for decades and let them roll off his back.”

*** And does she expand her policy portfolio? Third, do we see Palin expand her policy portfolio beyond her wheelhouse -- energy, special needs, and neoconservative foreign policy? Recently, Palin weighed in on the Federal Reserve’s action to pump more money into the economy (however, she mistakenly said that prices have risen over the last year or so when, in fact, inflation has been very low). There are two perceptions of Palin: One hits at what Lisa Murkowski said last week. ("You know, she was my governor for two years, for just about two years there, and I don't think that she enjoyed governing," Murkowski told CBS. "I don't think she liked to get down into the policy."). And the other is what Draper said of her. (“Less well known was the Palin who … was seen more than once passed out on her hotel bed half-buried in briefing books and index cards…”). But will somebody explain how she is helping herself to be taken more seriously when she’s using her new book to talk about things like “American Idol”?

*** More numbers on Palin: Meanwhile, a brand-new Quinnipiac poll shows Palin leading a hypothetical GOP primary field at 19% -- followed by Mitt Romney at 18%, Mike Huckabee at 17%, Newt Gingrich at 15%, and Tim Pawlenty at 6%. But in the GOP field, Palin's negatives are the highest (36%-51% overall fav/unfav and 33%-54% among indies), while Huckabee (41%-25%) and Romney (38%-26%) are positive, and Gingrich’s is negative (30%-43%); Obama is 48%-48%. And Palin also performs the worst in a head-to-head against Obama: Romney narrowly edges the president, 45%-44%; Obama leads Huckabee, 46%-44%; Obama leads the largely unknown Daniels 45%-36%; and Obama gets closest to 50% against Palin, whom he leads 48%-40%.

*** A better trip for Obama: Turning from Palin to American foreign policy, the NATO summit in Portugal was a very productive trip for President Obama. NATO endorsing major troop reductions in Afghanistan by Dec. 31, 2014 is a big deal. Yes, it's punting, but it's also an international coalition supporting the U.S.’s end game. So there's no second guessing outside the U.S. on this issue. The only second guessing will come from anti-war Democrats inside the U.S. And frankly, it's legitimate second guessing, but could the U.S. realistically pull out any sooner? The international community’s answer: no.

*** If you START me up, I’ll never stop: But Afghanistan was just one storyline in Lisbon; the other was the new START treaty. This is turning into a key political battle for Team Obama, and they know it. They got every European leader imaginable to go public this weekend supporting the treaty. Indeed, there's a real fear in the White House that if Sen. Jon Kyl and the GOP roll them on this, it will weaken the president on the world's stage. Right now, the White House is struggling to agree on a strategy to get this done. At a press conference over the weekend, Obama hit the Republicans for playing politics on foreign policy and national security. “This is an issue that traditionally has received strong bipartisan support,” he said. “There’s no other reason not to do it than the fact that Washington has become a very partisan place.” But he dodged the question of whether Kyl is playing politics. “I’ve spoken to Sen. Kyl directly,” he said. “Sen. Kyl has never said to me that he does not want to see START ratified.”

*** Sooner rather than later: Here’s a tip: Expect to see some more White House staff movement sooner rather than later. Nobody likes working in limbo, and this may speed up Pete Rouse and Valerie Jarrett, the two people other than the president himself who may know more about the re-arranging of the staff.

*** The uncalled races: Rep. Tim Bishop (D-NY-1) has come back to overtake Republican Randy Altschuler with counting of absentee and provisional ballots. That means of the five House races still uncalled, Republicans lead in two. They are currently +61 in the House and could get to about +63 -- if current numbers hold. The uncalled races: CA-11, CA-20, NY-1, NY-25, and TX-27. In CA-11 and CA-20, the Democrats appear to be on track to win narrowly. In NY-25, Republican Ann Marie Buerkle expanded her lead over incumbent Democrat Dan Maffei. And in TX-27, Blake Farenthold (R) continues to lead, as a recount requested by incumbent Solomon Ortiz nears completion.

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