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WASHINGTON -- Democrat Alex Sink has a slight four-point lead in the race for governor over Republican Rick Scott, according to a poll released Thursday by Quinnipiac University.
But with 11 percent undecided and nine percent saying they may change their mind, the governor's race seems headed to ``the finish line as a dead heat,'' said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
The poll shows Sink leads Scott, 45-41. The previous Quinnipiac poll released Oct. 12 had Scott beating Sink, 45-44 percent.
In the Senate race, no major surprises. The poll shows Republican Marco Rubio is maintaning a steady lead against challengers, Gov. Charlie Crist, who is running independent of any party, and Democrat Kendrick Meek. Rubio is favored by 42 percent of voters, compared to Crist's 35 percent and Meek's 15 percent. The poll's margin of error: plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
``With his supporters less likely to change their minds than those of his two opponents, Marco Rubio is in the driver's seat with only five days to go until Election Day,'' Brown said.
The poll of 784 likely voters was conducted Oct. 18-24, a day before the controversy erupted over Sink receiving a smart phone Droid message during a commercial break in Monday's final gubernatorial debates. The two candidates had agreed not to allow such messages during the debate, which was broadcast live on CNN across the country.
The next day, the Droid phone gaffe went viral and has since consumed the campaign for governor.
Sink and Scott, both inexperienced campaigners, have been walking on eggshells for months to avoid an embarrassing gaffe that could damage their campaigns. Despite Sink's caution, the debate flap forced her to immediately removed Brian May, an unpaid political consultant, from the campaign. Meanwhile, Scott's campaign pounced on the issue, labeling it a cheating scam.
Sink has spent the last two days responding to the flap after debate moderater John King of CNN concluded that Sink knew what she was being sent. It took Sink's campaign two days to persuade the media -- by unwinding the video frame by frame -- that she did not realize why she was being handed the phone.
The Quinnipiac poll shows that independent voters in the governor's race continues to be the ones likely to make a difference on Election Day.
As of last week, 42 percent favored Sink and 37 percent favored Scott. But the survey also revealed that despite the anti-Washington sentiment, and the president's low approval ratings, a larger percentage of Republicans are fleeing to Sink -- 17 percent -- than Democrats are moving to Scott -- 8 percent.
One thing Sink does appear to have, however is a lock on the women vote, Brown said. The poll shows that 46 percent of women favor Sink while 38 percent favor Scott, while Scott has a slight 45-44 percent edge among men.
``Given that Ms. Sink would become Florida's first female governor, the lack of a larger gender gap is perhaps surprising,'' Brown said. ``She has some momentum, but anything can happen in the final days before Election Day.''
On the campaign trail, Scott was confident he would be victorious on Tuesday.
``If you look at the likely voters, and the absentee ballots and early voting, we're doing really well. We're going to win,'' he said.
Mary Ellen Klas can be reached at meklas@MiamiHerald.com.
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