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President Obama may be the latest Democratic president who has to survive a conservative "wave election."
"It's an election in which conservatives gain enough power in Congress -- even if they don't control it -- to block liberal legislation," said Julian Zelizer, a congressional historian at Princeton University. "They're usually some kind of response or backlash to a president who has put forth a big agenda."
If the polls are right, Obama -- whose presidency has included a landmark health care bill and a major stimulus package --is looking at the same fate that befell Democratic predecessors Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Lyndon Johnson, Jimmy Carter, and Bill Clinton. (It should be noted that three of those presidents -- Roosevelt, Truman, and Clinton -- went on to win the next presidential election.)
A look at those previous conservative waves:
1938 -- Republicans and conservative Democrats increased their numbers, partly in reaction to Roosevelt's Supreme Court "packing" plan and New Deal initiatives, and in defiance of FDR's efforts to purge his party of conservatives. The Republicans picked up 81 House seats. The GOP remained very much in the minority in both the House and the Senate, but combined with conservative Democrats to basically end the New Deal, though Roosevelt's attention was turning to another major project: World War II.
1946 -- A year after Roosevelt's death and the end of World War II, war-weary voters in a bad economy turned against a Democratic Party that had ruled Washington since the 1932 election. The Republicans gained 55 seats in the next U.S. House and 13 in Senate, winning control of Congress. Two year later, however, President Harry Truman would run against the "Do Nothing" Republican Congress, and sweep to an upset election win over Thomas Dewey.
1966 -- Two years before, President Lyndon Johnson won a landslide that swept in huge Democratic majorities that produced such "Great Society" legislation as the Voting Rights Act and Medicare. In this election, however, the shadows of Vietnam, inflation, and race riots helped Republicans win 47 House seats. The Democrats still controlled Congress, but LBJ's ambitions faced new legislative roadblocks. One prominent Republican went across the country in 1966 campaigning for GOP candidates: Richard Nixon, who would be elected president in two years.
1978 -- A slow economy and ratification of the Panama Canal treaties gave Republicans an opening two years into Jimmy Carter's presidency. The Republicans gained 15 House seats and three Senate seats, with many new members from the South, previewing the GOP rise in the region. While Democrats still held Congress, these mid-terms also previewed Ronald Reagan's presidential election -- and a Republican takeover of the Senate -- in 1980.
1994 -- President Bill Clinton's early struggles led to a political earthquake. Under the leadership of Newt Gingrich, the Republicans gains 54 House seats, winning control of the chamber for the first time in four decades. The GOP also wins eight Senate seats to win that chamber. Clashes between Clinton and the conservative Congress led to a government shutdown, but also welfare reform and a balanced budget. Clinton played off the Gingrich Congress to cruise to re-election over Senate Republican leader Bob Dole in 1996.
Democrats have had their "wave" mid-term elections, such as the "Watergate class" of 1974. Their last wave came in 2006, as Democrats rode George W. Bush's unpopularity to re-capture control of the House and Senate -- and pave the way for Barack Obama's election two years later.
Now, Obama, with his health care plan, his stimulus bill, and other big initiatives, faces a counter-wave.
"The ingredients are there," Zelizer said.
(Posted by David Jackson)
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